The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program
Dr. Harvey Hill
NOAA-Office of Global Programs
Silver Spring, MD 20910

Climate variability and change significantly influences the health, prosperity, and well being of the people of the United States. Most recently, this has been demonstrated by several high impact events such as Hurricanes Andrew and Floyd, the 1997-98 El Niño event, and droughts in Texas (1998) and the Northeast (1999). Over the past decade there has been significant progress in understanding longer term climate patterns that drive these phenomena, such as the El Niño -Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation.

Coincident with increases in climatic understanding, prediction skill, and impacts, have been calls for improved processes to identify and meet national, regional, and local climate-related needs, and to foster the timely adoption and effective use of commercially valuable information and technology. The major climatic forcings, mentioned above, occur at the global scale. Local climates result from the interaction of these patterns of atmospheric, cryospheric, and oceanic variability superimposed on many different times scales and land surface conditions. NOAA-OGP sponsored research has shown that enabling effective responses to climate variability and change requires assessment at both the global-scale and at the appropriate scale of action i.e. the regional and local scale.

Recent advances in our understanding of complex systems have allowed for a reframing of the climate-society interface as a multidimensional problem in which studies of larger-scale climatic forcings and regionally-focused assessments of impacts all proceed simultaneously (i.e. co-evolve with feedback among the components). Included in this framing are (1) the need to include appropriate human components (i.e. Economics and Human Dimensions) in environmental research, (2) the need for more effective information infrastructure to enable significant advances in informatics, data management, modeling, synthesis and dissemination of information, and, (3) the need to refine the relationship between Federally-funded efforts in climate services and the University, non-governmental, and private sectors.

The need for integrated assessments or appraisals of knowledge about climate variations, climate impacts, applications, and consequences, has been identified through decades of research and experience in many fields. The major lesson has been that different degrees of impact, change, and surprise, result from a variety of climatological, social, economic and ecological circumstances interacting over different spatial and temporal scales. New knowledge, new problems and opportunities continuously arise as events unfold. Integrated scientific assessments constitute the sum of efforts to (1) characterize the state of knowledge of climate variations and changes at appropriate scales of interest, (2) identify knowledge gaps and linkages in selected climate-environment-society interactions, and (3) provide an informed basis for (a) responding to climate-related risks, and for b) establishing priorities in basic research investments to meet these needs. Integrated Assessment tools can thus include, but can not be confined to, Integrated Assessment Models.

From the NOAA perspective, Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments involve the intersection of three major coordinates, (1) Climate and environmental monitoring and research, (2) Economic and Human Dimensions research, especially on trends and factors influencing climate-sensitive human activities, and (3) Applications and decision support i.e. the transformation and communication of relevant research results to meet specific needs in a region. The objective of the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program is to inform the development of place-based decision support and services in responding to and mitigating climate-related risks. Enabling such services, within any region and at any point in time requires a critical mass of knowledge and of capacity to apply knowledge, e.g. tailoring information to meet local needs, implementing communication networks and infrastructure etc.

The "regional scale" offers a useful organizational unit on which to coordinate and evaluate research cognizant of socio-economic needs and geophysical and jurisdictional boundaries. Assessment of critical climate-sensitive issues, in this setting, is the iterative process of integrating interdisciplinary knowledge and experience about risks and vulnerabilities in a region commensurate with the design and support of effective responses. The Integrated Sciences component informs the assessment function by focusing ongoing research on (1) linkages between critical components of physical systems (e.g. climate-fisheries interactions), (2) linkages between social and economic activities (e.g. climate and energy production) and relevant variations and changes in these systems, and (3) linkages between this integrated knowledge, and decision processes and resources objectives.

The NOAA-OGP Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program
Ideally, the end goals of the NOAA/OAR/OGP RISA-sponsored activities are to expand the range of choices available to private and public communities in a region, by cooperatively identifying and enabling practical decisions using available, but possibly fragmented, research-based knowledge and, by filling the gaps where needed. As defined here, assessments raise questions and express judgments on the reliability of knowledge about linkages and projections at the climate-environment-society interface and on the robustness of the data e.g. What are the "critical" issues and how are they identified? What is known and what do we need to know? How well do we understand these relationships over time? Do we know them well enough for effective decision-making? How can social and economic benefits be maximized? etc. Problem-focused research has the added impetus of identifying paths to decisions and possible outcomes.

Implementation of RISA projects takes the form of several co-evolving tasks, including:

• Identifying critical issues/problems within region. Characterizing the current state of relevant knowledge of climate, ecological and hydrologic variability and relationships on multiple time-scales
• Assessing social, economic, and ecological impacts and vulnerability to climate on multiple time-scales in selected cases. Identifying levels of criticality within 2-3 important sectors and/or groups (e.g. water resources, urban areas, agriculture, fisheries etc.) in a region
• Developing pilot projects and prototypes for using environmental information and enhance collaboration among researchers, decision-makers, and the public.
• Improving decision-support dialogues, openness, and developing awareness with respect to integrated climate impacts on regional and local system outputs
• Developing frameworks for structuring present knowledge and knowledge gaps.Testing these in different fora such as in responding to shorter term events and extremes in the region and, providing feedback into assessment design
• Refining mechanisms of interaction and learning among the research and Programmatic communities
• Capacity building as needed to realize the benefits afforded by developments in climate research, products and services

RISA activities require innovative partnerships among a spectrum of interests (Federal, State, local and private etc.) to enable organizational capacity within a region for services on an ongoing basis. As such, the RISA Program relies heavily on consolidating the results and data from ongoing NOAA and other agency funded research already funded in a region, into an integrative framework. From the standpoint of the RISA Program, the temporal phases involved in program implementation include:

Years 1-2

• Team building/Regional characterization
• Inclusion of other agencies, public and private partners etc. in problem definition
• Identification of 1-3 critical interdisciplinary issues and affected groups
• Assessment of climate-related knowledge and responses to date
• Start-up pilot projects

Years 2-3

• Refining and developing preliminary studies,Re-definitions of region and problem focus
• Clarifying issue criticality, vulnerability, sensitivity, capacity from cause to effect (beginning vertical integration)
• Developing criteria for interaction with stakeholders and for self-evaluation etc.
• Co-developing (and progress toward meeting) criteria for evaluation with Program Management

Years 4-?

• Fully integrating lines of communication and research developed in preliminary studies: standards and practices (vertical integration)
• Expansion to other sectors (horizontal integration), including enlargement of region and/or scope in previous cases if necessary
• Continued inclusion of other public and private agencies and institutions as partners etc.

At present, there are five Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments activities funded by NOAA/OAR/OGP. These are focused on the Pacific Northwest, the Southwest, California, Inter-Mountain West, and the Southeast regions of the United States. As is evident in the following project description, each team devises its own problem definition and implementation plan, within the above guidelines. As expected, those funded first have begun to make inroads to meeting the goals of the Program. Those in pilot or preliminary stages focus on clarification of initially defined critical regional issues, team building, developing cooperative stakeholder linkages, and data assimilation. Pilot efforts undergo comprehensive reviews and evaluation before consideration of expansion to full assessments. Funds are also targeted, in the Program, towards research on assessment design including comparative studies of assessment processes, transferability of approaches and lessons derived.

The Pacific Northwest Assessment, now in its fifth year, is centered at the University of Washington, Seattle. This project focuses on climate and weather-related linkages to marine and freshwater ecosystems (chiefly Pacific Salmon), hydrology and water resources including hydropower, forest resources, coastal resources and health. A useful illustration of the approach articulated above is provided by research undertaken in the Pacific Northwest. By integrating information about oceanic, atmospheric, ecological, and hydrologic processes, (employing monitoring, forecasting, and observational systems funded by NOAA) researchers in this group have led to a clearer understanding of natural versus human-caused fluctuations in Pacific salmon numbers. Strong efforts have also been made to establish working relationships, such as with the State of Washington, Seattle Power and Light etc., and to secure locally-based external funding with resource management, cultural, and educational institutions and sectors in the region.

The Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest was established to assess climate variability and longer-term climate change in terms of impacts on human and natural systems in the Southwest. The project's mission is to improve the ability of the region to respond sufficiently and appropriately to climatic events and climate changes. The Southwest Assessment, beginning its third year, is centered at the University of Arizona in Tucson. The research and applications foci are on large-scale climatic phenomena (ENSO, the SW Monsoon etc.) and their impact on floods and droughts on Native American lands, rangeland management, and on rapidly evolving trans-boundary and urban issues (primarily Phoenix and Tucson) in water resources management.

The California Applications Program (CAP), consists of f university, federal and private agency scientists studying the impacts of climate variability and attempting to improve climate and extended weather forecasts in the California region. The Program evaluates weather and climate forecasts for California, improve local models and forecasts of water resources and hazards including wildfire and health risks, and tailor and disseminate forecasts to local users in these sectors.

To evaluate the utility of this information, the program has identified and is collaborating with a selected set of managers at the federal, state, and local level to address the needs of these specific applications. CAP Partners include the State of California Dept. of Water Resources, Pacific Gas and Electric, Kings River Water Agency, Southern California Edison, United Water Agency in Ventura, Bureau of Reclamation, and California Wild Fire Agencies.

The Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Impacts on Agriculture in the Southeast US is implemented by a Consortium of Universities (University of Florida University of Miami, Florida State University). Their approach involves generation and communication of information on climate and climate impacts in agriculture. These efforts are primarily focused on associations between ENSO and climate in Florida where there is an increase of over 30% of the normal winter rainfall during warm events, while cold (La Niña) events show a corresponding decrease of 10% to 30%. Several of Florida's highest valued crops and their prices have been shown to be influenced by ENSO. The Consortium has designed and initiated an operational system and decision support tools to disseminate agriculturally relevant climate information. The system is the result of a close collaboration between the Consortium and the Florida agricultural extension service. The State of Florida has now designated the application of climate forecasts as a State Major Program. This Consortium plan to expand its work into other Southeastern States.

The Western Water Assessment is centered at the University of Colorado, Boulder. The Interior West (Colorado Plateau and its runoff basins) contains the primary headwaters for water supply to major regions, including the Colorado Front Range, the arid Southwest, California, and the western Great Plains. The NOAA/CIRES Western Water Assessment, now in its second year, was developed to address the issues surrounding climate variability and its impact on water quality and quantity in the Interior West. The initial projects were chosen carefully with thought given to climate variability impacts on water supply and ecosystems, water demand trends, and system vulnerability. The first case study in the "Western Water Assessment" is on the South Platte Basin. Partners include the Bureau of Reclamation and various Conservancy Districts. The teams' approach to assessing regional change and vulnerability on the South Platte includes the following areas of emphases: Climate impacts on water supply and demand zones in the South Platte, Investigating current uses of climate information and user needs, Use of ENSO information in improving seasonal water supply outlooks and the development of short-term streamflow forecasts for specific management applications (e.g. flow augmentation requirements for the maintenance of endangered fish habitat), and implications of climate variability for low flows and dilution of discharges from point sources.

As these efforts evolve, the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program, and related research, are anticipated to play central roles in developing, informing, and enabling, the delivery of relevant climate services for the social and economic benefit of the United States.

For further information please contact:
Harvey Hill
NOAA-Office of Global Programs
1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Telephone: 301-427-2089 x197
Fax: 301-427-2073
e-mail: harvey.hill@noaa.gov